In a recent academic paper, researchers suggested that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will cause car use to spike, resulting in calamitous logjams, which could adversely affect the quality of life and economic health of those cities. According to an article in Bloomberg, University of Texas-Arlington engineering professors Farah Naz and Stephen Mattingly reviewed 26 prior studies that evaluated how AVs affect total vehicle miles traveled (VMT). They estimated a VMT rise of 6% attributable to AVs, with the anticipated increase a bit higher for privately-owned AVs and slightly lower if robotaxis remain the dominant format.
Their research seemed to indicate that each vehicle mile that AVs induce will impose costs on society, including additional accidents (since any car trip carries a degree of risk), as well as pollution from tires and the generation of electricity to power them. Regarding robotaxis, there is also the issue of “deadheading,” which occurs without any passenger inside a vehicle, when an AV is en route to a pickup, waiting for its next ride, or headed toward a recharging station. As of late 2025, deadheading represented almost half of Waymo’s total miles driven in the Bay Area.
Some new AV trips will take place at night or over weekends, but others will occur during peak times, when highways and streets are already full. In congested environments, even a slight uptick in the number of vehicles can dramatically slow everyone else on the roadway – creating more and lengthier traffic jams.
Transit and biking advocates will also face headwinds. Convincing car owners to support pedestrian-friendly road changes or convert a traffic lane to a cycletrack is already extremely difficult; heavier congestion will make it even tougher.
Source: Bloomberg
